A City on Mars: Can We Settle Space, Should We Settle Space, and Have We Really Thought This Through?

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Anyone familiar with Kim Stanley Robinson’s Mars trilogy (Red Mars, Green Mars, and Blue Mars, 1992, 1993, 1996 respectively), or the Expanse SF series of novels attributed to two authors writing under the pen name James S.A. Corey (for information about the series, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Expanse_(novel_series)), or much of all the golden age “space opera” SF, knows one of the fundamental premises of SF is that exploration, settlement, and colonization of the Moon (see, Robert Heinlein, The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, 1966)  and Mars are inevitable and likely to occur in our own lifetime, or at least that of our children. And that they will occur not without risks and tragedy but will at least ensure that humanity in some form will survive in and beyond our own planet and solar system.

Authors Kelly and Zach Weinersmith gently question these assumptions, debunk some of the major arguments for near-term permanent settlements in space, and by combining a thoughtful analysis of the challenges and choices facing such settlements with wry humor and illustrations, lay out what amounts to a game plan both for our own space policy makers (both private and public), and for any plausible future SF set in the coming decades or next century. It will simply not be possible to write anything about settlement on the Moon or Mars and beyond that is not viewed as pure fantasy if it does not deal with and respond to the evidence and arguments raised in this book. (Another skeptical assessment of humans’ potential for living in space is: Sarah Scoles, “Why We’ll Never Live in Space.” Scientific American 329.3, October, 2023, pp. 22-29).

The Weinersmiths’ book has 20 chapters divided into an introduction, “A Homesteader’s Guide to the Red Planet” and Chapter 1, a “Preamble on Space Myths,” followed by six parts. Part I is ”Caring for the Space Faring” (physiology, space sex, psychology). Part II, “Spome, Spome on the Range,” investigates where and how humans might practically survive and thrive on (or under) the Moon or Mars, or in orbiting space habitats that might provide some gravity, protection from radiation, and/or a place for human births to safely occur off-earth. An historic interlude on “Rocketry” discusses the sad tale of the efforts of Hermann Oberth to build a rocket to help Fritz Lang make a film, The Woman in the Moon, in 1928. They wryly comment: “If you’ve ever wondered what happens when you take liquid oxygen and pour gasoline on top, we can tell you that in at least this one case, you get exploded across a room, burst an eardrum, and have your left eye damaged. Then, if you are enthusiastic enough about rockets, you get right back to work” (114). An example of the risks of space science on Earth, and implicitly how they would be magnified in space.

Part III, “Pocket Edens,” explores ecosystem design for initial space habitats, from space toilets (173-176) to food (176-182), including the difficulty of using Martian soil to grow anything (181), and to the likelihood that the only space “ranching” will be for insects (182).  One expert they consulted suggested “plants might be grown for spices, but that otherwise we should create our meals from fundamental food building blocks, like fats and amino acids” (182). There is an interesting and not altogether dismissive discussion of experiments with closed ecosystems on earth, such as Biosphere 2, which they see as not entirely a failure and which, if properly scaled up in multiple experimental efforts, could provide a foundation for any real, long term space colonization (183-191). But not in the short or even medium term, is their bottom line. Chapter 10 goes into detail on how to build space habitats, addressing energy sources, shielding, size, and optimal locations on the Moon or Mars (192-210).

Optimal location raises the many issues of who (and how they) could obtain title, if not sovereignty, to settlements in space, and thus the importance of space law, from the benefits and limitations of the Outer Space Treaty (OTS)  and its several amendments dating from the 1970s, the failure to ratify the Moon Treaty, and its possible value as a source for or evidence of what might become “customary international space law,” much as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) has become “customary law of the sea” even for nations (like the United States) that have yet to ratify it.  This is all explored in Part IV: “Space Law for Space Settlements, Weird, Vague, and Hard to Change” (217-275). The authors are concerned that the safety of space settlements in the future will depend on first reaching agreements on all of this on Earth—that peace in space will depend on our first establishing peace on Earth, a tall order but one that should be a worthy goal of anyone truly interested in humanity’s ultimate survival on, and beyond, Earth.

In Part V, the Weinersmiths explore the case for treating space as a commons. They think this can be made to work with buy-in from the nations and the various private interests currently vying for private space ventures, from Elon Musk to Jeff Bezos or their future competitors (277-308). Chapter 16 does a good job of exploring the definition of a state in the Montevideo Convention of 1933 (310-311), analogizing how new states are created from old on Earth, to how they might emerge on Mars or elsewhere in the future, and the risks of these emerging through less than peaceful means:

[I]f you want an independent space nation, you’ve got to have something like a harmonious Earth. Given how long it is likely to be until large Mars settlements are possible, pursuing a regime that avoids conflict is probably better than trying to cram through space nations as fast as possible. (327)

Part VI: “To Plan B or Not to Plan B: Space Society, Expansion, and Existential Risk” (333-377) revisits and explores in some detail the pros and cons of labor and population issues, whether space settlements would protect human rights, and the risks of war on Earth being enhanced by rogue players in space—reminding me of one of the story lines in the Expanse novels. Chapter 20 discusses the proposal of Dr. Daniel Deudney, unpopular with “space geeks” they have interviewed, that the best option is not to “create a major human presence in space,” just do research, “science, environmental monitoring and communication” (376-377). If you can’t accept that, or if one day space settlement becomes at least more plausible than it is now, the Weinersmiths’ bottom line is that we should wait until we’ve done the necessary research to keep real humans really alive in space or on Mars, and then “go big” to ensure we have a realistically large enough population and genetic pool to make it survivable if indeed contact with Earth is lost or too remote (380-388).

The book concludes with detailed chapter notes (391-399), a partial bibliography (401-420), and an index (421-436). It is well written, clear to the layperson yet detailed and informative to people interested in the subject and in particular in its excellent explication of the relevant domestic and international legal issues that will underlie any realistic efforts to move humankind into space. Policy makers and science fiction authors should take note, and this belongs in any university library as well as SF writers’ workshops.

Bruce Lindsley Rockwood, Emeritus Professor of Legal Studies at Bloomsburg University, Pennsylvania, is a long-time member of SFRA, having served as Vice President (2005-2006), and regularly writes reviews for SFRA Review from his retirement home in Midcoast Maine. A member of the American Society of International Law (ASIL), he has taught and published on law, literature, climate change and science fiction, and attends SFRA and WorldCon with his wife Susan when possible (most recently in Montreal, Spokane, and recent virtual sessions of the SFRA.